How to See Disruption Before It Wins: Fact-check and Sources.
Fact-check and sources. We checked every figure in this episode against primary sources after recording. On-screen captions carry the corrections. The full record is below, newest data as of September 2026.
Corrections and caveats
CorrectedSolar costs twelve cents per kilowatt-hour
Utility-scale solar runs about 4 to 8 cents per kWh unsubsidized. Twelve cents fits old figures or rooftop solar. The likely mix-up is module price per watt.
Source: Lazard LCOE+ 2025 — https://www.lazard.com/media/5tlbhyla/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2025-_vf.pdf
CorrectedThe IEA director's name
The IEA Executive Director is Fatih Birol.
Source: Carbon Brief — https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea
CorrectedThe cancelled nuclear plant "Sumner"
The plant is V.C. Summer, in South Carolina. About $9 billion spent, abandoned in 2017, no electricity produced. Four executives were criminally convicted, including SCANA CEO Kevin Marsh.
Source: U.S. Department of Justice — https://www.justice.gov/usao-sc/pr/fourth-and-final-vc-summer-executive-sentenced-misconduct-connection-failed-nuclear
CorrectedIron-air batteries last a hundred days
Form Energy iron-air storage runs about 100 hours. It is multi-day long-duration storage. The unit was hours, not days.
Source: Form Energy — https://formenergy.com/technology/battery-technology/
CorrectedSolar will be 90% cheaper by 2030 than 2020
That 90% drop describes the decade that already passed, 2010 to 2020. Forward projections are far smaller, around 30% by 2035.
Source: BloombergNEF via pv magazine — https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/02/23/solar-lcoe-to-fall-30-by-2035-says-bloombergnef/
CorrectedJenny Chase quote on free solar, New York Times 2024
The exact line is not verified as a New York Times 2024 quote. The verifiable source is a 2023 podcast, where she described zero-price solar hours in some markets as a constraint, not a promise of free power everywhere. Treat it as a paraphrase.
Source: Volts (David Roberts), 2023 — https://www.volts.wtf/p/checking-in-on-solar-power
CorrectedJune 2025, demand up 2.8%, renewables met 109%
Across full-year 2025, electricity demand grew about 2.8%, clean generation met roughly 104% of that growth, wind and solar alone about 99%, and fossil generation fell about 0.2%. The "June" and "109%" specifics do not match Ember's figures. The conclusion holds.
Source: Ember — https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/solar-surge-halts-fossil-electricity-growth-worldwide-in-2025/
CorrectedThe Texas grid doubled in five years
Total ERCOT capacity did not double. Solar and battery capacity multiplied several-fold. Batteries went from near zero to over 12 GW, solar from about 12 GW to about 30 GW.
Source: EIA — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67906
CorrectedSolar sheep earn the farmer four times the income
The study found 2 to 3 times a traditional shepherd's income, driven by grazing-service payments from the solar operator. Yield and soil benefits are separately supported.
Source: Western University — https://news.westernu.ca/2025/01/solar-sheep/
CorrectedBalcony solar is legal in twelve states
Utah was first in 2025. Virginia became the second in 2026, effective January 2027. About two dozen states have introduced bills. Roughly two have enacted, not twelve.
Source: World Resources Institute — https://www.wri.org/insights/enabling-plug-in-solar-states
CaveatNuclear costs 3x solar and solar keeps falling
Nuclear at about 3x solar is correct. But US solar costs rose about 18% in 2026 on tariffs and the loss of tax credits, so "solar still falling" is not true in the US right now.
Source: Lazard via pv magazine USA — https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/07/13/u-s-solar-lcoe-on-the-rise-lazard-says/
CaveatSolar drives negative prices on sunny afternoons
Negative wholesale prices are real in Texas. The best-documented negative pricing is wind-driven in the Panhandle where transmission is constrained. Solar does crush midday prices system-wide.
Source: Modo Energy — https://modoenergy.com/research/en/ercot-power-prices-2024-energy-arbitrage-ancillary-services-hub-load-zone-west-north-south-houston-panhandle
CaveatAustralia EVs became the top vehicle import
Battery-electric vehicles outsold petrol cars for the first time in August 2026. Reporting credits near-zero tariffs on cheap Chinese EVs, not the fuel price spike.
Source: Electrek — https://electrek.co/2026/09/03/australia-ev-sales-outsell-petrol-august-2026/
CaveatTrump renamed it the "Trump Strait"
He posted a map labeled "TRUMP STRAIT" on Truth Social and proposed the name. No official rename occurred.
Source: Khaama Press — https://www.khaama.com/trump-renews-trump-strait-proposal-with-new-hormuz-map-post-on-truth-social/
Verified as stated
VerifiedThe strait closed in early 2026 and oil spiked
The conflict began February 28, 2026, with closure through the first quarter. The Dallas Fed modeled it as the largest geopolitical oil shock in modern history.
Source: Dallas Fed — https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0320
VerifiedSolar drops about 20% per doubling of production
The module learning rate averages about 20% per doubling, known as Swanson's Law. The continuous curve dates to the late 1970s. The annual decline is often cited near 10%, so the 8% figure is conservative.
Source: Our World in Data — https://ourworldindata.org/learning-curve
VerifiedSolar was first used on satellites because it was so expensive
The first practical use was the Vanguard I satellite in 1958, when cost was about $1,865 per watt.
Source: Our World in Data — https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth
VerifiedThe IEA has long underestimated solar
The World Energy Outlook has been repeatedly criticized for systematically underestimating solar deployment over more than a decade.
Source: pv magazine — https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/04/11/ieas-world-energy-outlook-systemically-underestimates-solar-pv-development/
VerifiedSolar is the cheapest electricity in history, IEA 2020
The IEA said so in World Energy Outlook 2020, with a caveat for projects with low-cost financing and strong sunlight.
Source: Carbon Brief — https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea
VerifiedFossil fuel emissions cause about 18% of deaths worldwide
A 2021 Harvard and UCL study attributed about 8.7 million deaths in 2018 to fossil fuel air pollution, 18% that year, nearly 1 in 5.
Source: UCL — https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/feb/fossil-fuel-air-pollution-responsible-1-5-deaths-worldwide
VerifiedGermany's balcony solar exceeds one nuclear plant's capacity
Over 1 million systems, about 956 MW as of June 2025 and now past 1 GW. This is nameplate capacity, not equivalent annual output, since solar runs at a lower capacity factor than nuclear.
Source: Warp News — https://www.warpnews.org/green-tech/now-over-one-million-balcony-solar-installations-in-germany/
VerifiedNuclear has a negative learning rate
MIT research documents construction costs rising as more plants were built, the opposite of solar.
Source: MIT Energy Initiative — https://energy.mit.edu/news/building-nuclear-power-plants/
VerifiedLarge gas turbines are back-ordered to about 2030
GE Vernova reservations reach 2031, Siemens lead times exceed three years, Mitsubishi orders slate 2028 to 2030.
Source: Utility Dive — https://www.utilitydive.com/news/mitsubishi-gas-turbine-manufacturing-capacity-expansion-supply-demand/759371/
VerifiedThe NuScale SMR project was cancelled on cost
The Idaho project was terminated in November 2023 after its target price rose 53% to $89 per MWh.
Source: World Nuclear News — https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/idaho-smr-project-terminated
VerifiedNo SMR operates commercially in any G7 country
The two deployed SMRs are Russia's Akademik Lomonosov and China's Linglong-1. None operate commercially in a G7 nation.
Source: NucNet — https://www.nucnet.org/news/china-s-linglong-1-set-to-become-first-land-based-smr-to-begin-operation-12-5-2025
VerifiedData centers use jet-engine-derived turbines, about 20 per site
Aeroderivative turbines are being deployed onsite. Crusoe ordered 29 units of about 42 MW each for one site.
Source: Data Center Frontier — https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/energy/article/55358731/aeroderivative-turbines-move-to-the-center-of-ai-data-center-power-strategy
VerifiedGermans build solar fences
Vertical bifacial solar fences are a real commercial product.
Source: pv magazine — https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/04/19/plug-and-play-pv-system-for-garden-fences/
VerifiedTexas had 11 grid conservation appeals in 2023, none in summer 2024
The Dallas Fed confirms 11 in 2023 and no summer appeal in 2024, crediting solar and battery capacity. Note Winter Storm Heather did prompt a January 2024 appeal.
Source: Dallas Fed — https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/0114
VerifiedTexas has run a competitive wholesale market since the late 1990s
Wholesale deregulation came in 1995, Senate Bill 7 in 1999, retail choice from 2002.
Source: Deregulation of the Texas electricity market — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deregulation_of_the_Texas_electricity_market
VerifiedBatteries use no rare earths, LFP is the cheap chemistry, sodium-ion is emerging
Rare earths sit in motors, not lithium batteries. LFP became the dominant EV chemistry in 2025. Sodium-ion is in early commercialization.
Source: InsideEVs — https://insideevs.com/news/784963/lfp-overtakes-nickel-battery-chemistry/
Compiled by Agile Meridian. Figures verified September 2026. Corrections appear on screen in the episode.
