The Meridian Point Podcast
Two Markets Shifted at Once: Surviving the Trough of Disruption
Guest: Jeff Giesen
Host: Kumar Dattatreyan
Kumar: Hi everyone, Kumar Dattatreyan here with The Meridian Point, back for another episode. This one is live. I'm joined by Jeff Giesen. I hope I'm saying your name right. He's an engineering leader and an agile transformation practitioner who built and led teams of Release Train Engineers, so teams of teams. He's taught Scaled Agile Framework courses in his career and has driven enterprise-scale transformation. And then the layoffs came. Like thousands of transformation professionals, I was one of them. I was laid off and looking for work as well. Jeff found himself on the other side of disruption. And here's what makes Jeff's story different: he didn't wait for the next role to appear. He leaned into his real estate background, a development business he'd been building since 2011, and pivoted from small multifamily investing to ground-up townhome construction. Now he's got several units nearing completion, and the real estate market is shifting under his feet. Jeff is navigating what I call the trough of disruption: that space between what was and what's next. We're going to talk about what it actually feels like to be in the middle of that. So Jeff, without further ado, welcome to the show. Thanks so much for being here and being willing to share your story.
Jeff: Hi, Kumar. Thank you so much. I do appreciate the opportunity.
Kumar: Awesome. So you described watching layoffs happen every six months at your company since COVID, and then your group got hit. I'd like to start there, not to dwell on it necessarily, but because I think people will resonate. They need to hear what that pivot point actually feels like from someone living it.
Jeff: Sure. Absolutely. So a company I worked for, we were in the travel reservation space. We brokered travel reservations between travel consumers and travel providers, suppliers. And with COVID, obviously, airline travel went flat. We struggled, and we were down to three days a week during COVID. It took a long time for that to come back. Throughout that recovery period, the company was forced to do some layoffs on a regular basis. So it wasn't uncommon to have these things happen, maybe once a year or more frequently. And eventually, the team I was part of got hit. I don't know that I was expecting it, but it wasn't an overly large surprise. Let's put it that way. I found myself without a job. The company had gone through a scaled agile transformation, and some of that was looked at as maybe too much overhead. So the organization I was part of got hit, and it was a fairly large impact.
Kumar: Interesting. I was a victim of that as well. And I'm wondering what your take on this is. In times of disruption like that, COVID hitting causes major disruptions to every industry. You would think that being an agilist would help a company survive that kind of disruption. What are your thoughts there, and why that is or isn't? Because it obviously wasn't the case. I was laid off.
Jeff: You were laid off. A bunch of people were laid off.
Kumar: Why aren't people thinking of agilists, of the transformation skill, as being needed in times like that?
Jeff: That's a great question, and I don't know that I have a perfect answer. The industry we're in, the travel industry, is heavily driven by the airlines and what the airlines want. So it's a tough business to be in from that perspective. It's slow-moving. Our scaled agile transformation was certainly helping us, but I think the company had its hands tied in certain ways it could operate. That was part of it. The agile transformation, while it helped the company quite a bit, I don't know that it really got us to where we needed to be. So it started just looking like overhead at that point. We did a pretty standard and full implementation of scaled agile. There are people who look at that and say, hey, there are a lot of overhead roles and activities in there if you're not working them correctly. And I think that's what happened here. So while we did see changes and improvements in our ability to deliver, we didn't see them as readily and as largely as would have helped prevent something like that.
Kumar: I guess that's the real key with any kind of transformation, whether it's agile or digital or whatever: you have some clear outcomes defined, and you're measuring all along the way. Transformation isn't so much an end state, I'd say. Would you agree? It's more of a journey.
Jeff: Absolutely. Without a doubt, there is no end game. It's constant improvement, constantly looking at what you're doing, constantly looking at the market, constantly looking at your products. Very iterative.
Kumar: So you're laid off, and I want to pivot to your other line of work. You'd been investing in real estate for years before the layoff, and when you lost your job, you sort of said, okay, I'm going to put more time and effort into this real estate business. And it wasn't just investing. You went into construction. You're building homes. Tell us about that. What drove that decision?
Jeff: In 2011, I bought a rental property and managed it in my spare time. That was going very well. It was kind of easy to do that in the 2010s, especially in Denver. And all around the neighborhood my duplex was in, there were scrapes going on, homes being scraped. They would build these large duplex homes, three-story homes with rooftop decks, and they sold them for huge dollars during that time. What I liked about it is the creation. I'd watch these things go up and say, wow, I wish I could do that. But with a full-time job, and not being a general contractor, how do I do something like that? Well, right before the layoffs happened, I started getting back into some of the networking groups I'd gone to earlier in that journey. And I found somebody who actually did that. They were kind of a one-stop shop: they'd find land, entitle it, put a design together, and build. So I started working with that company. I'm still not a GC. I'm not out there swinging hammers, I'm not project-managing the efforts. I've got someone doing that. But it enabled me to start doing something like that. And that's what kicked me into it.
Kumar: Interesting. So is that something you're still doing now?
Jeff: I am. I've got eight units that are to be ready in the end-of-August, beginning-of-September timeframe.
Kumar: And where's the disruption there? Is it just that the market is softening? I remember in our prep conversation, you said you feel like it's not sustainable.
Jeff: Everything's softening, especially here in Denver. We're a very expensive market. Homes probably are overpriced. Interest rates are certainly a factor. That was a shock, going up to where they are today, and I think that's preventing some things. But I've had some other units that came up, got completed, and were for sale. We did things like offering rate buy-downs for those units, and those didn't work real well. So it's not just a function of rates, in my opinion. The whole industry is talking about how we need rates to come down. That would be great. It might unlock some of the people who are sitting on their 3% interest rates and hanging out. But I think there's more to it. I think the prices are high. I think everything's more expensive. So it's maybe a perfect storm. We've got all the unrest politically and geographically. There are a lot of things playing into it. But the bottom line is everything softened, and the investments I've made have just been elongated. We've had to pivot. Construction is meant to sell homes, and we're not selling them, so we convert those to rentals. And while we wait, we sit until the numbers are good enough to sell. So the investments you make sometimes don't return when you expect. That's where I've been caught up.
Kumar: At least you're pivoting. There's a way to recoup some of the investment you've made, or pay the expenses at the very least.
Jeff: Yeah, absolutely. And construction isn't the only thing. Construction is one-time hits of income, when they sell, and there's generally cash flowing out until that point. With rentals, whether small, two to four units, or commercial, five and up, you have cash flow. So there are different markets, different ways to invest, and balancing cash flow with big income is probably a better approach. I moved out of the cash flow and into the development, and maybe that wasn't a good decision, but bottom line, here we are.
Kumar: In our prep conversation, you said you don't feel like the sky's falling, but you do feel like you're in kind of a limbo state. What does that limbo feel like? What has it taught you? And what do you see differently now that you couldn't see when things were going well?
Jeff: I absolutely feel like I'm in limbo. I would love to make some more real estate investments, but all the capital I had allocated for that is tied up. I'd love to get into some commercial multifamily, five-plus-unit apartment complexes. There's no way to do that without money to put in. Even if you get a group of people, if you syndicate a deal and get investors, nobody's going to give you a loan if you're not participating. So for those reasons, my hands are tied until some of these other investments come through. And it doesn't feel good. But it's taught me to trust in life. It's really easy to get wrapped around the axle, at least for me, about, oh my God, what if we don't get our investments back? What are we going to do monetarily? We've done a great job saving, so we're not going to lose our house or anything like that. But it's taught me to trust, to be a little more confident, and to manage fear. You can just really get yourself going if you'll allow it to. Those are the things it's taught me, from a personal perspective.
Kumar: Those are good lessons. How do you apply what you've learned? These are two totally different industries, at least on the surface: helping organizations become more adaptive and responsive as an agile transformation expert, and then the real estate thing. I'd think you're applying some of those lessons to how you manage your investments, manage the building of these homes, build relationships with people to partner with. How are you applying those lessons to the situation you're in now?
Jeff: Initially, since I'm mostly hands-off on these builds, I'm not in there saying, hey, we could be more efficient in the way we're managing these projects. But from a relationship perspective, absolutely. When I came across this company, I vetted them. I worked through all my networks in the real estate area and made sure the quality of the folks was there. I built relationships with the people at the company, and that has helped me immensely. Now, in this industry, builders are struggling, and I watch these companies work through all this. It's very impressive. So I think I did a good job of building those relationships, and that goes into any industry, not just a technical transformation. That's probably one of the bigger ones. I can look, as a third party, and say, wow, we probably could have managed this part of the construction process a little better, there were some misses there. But that's completely third-party. I don't fully understand the ins and outs of being on the ground on a construction project day in and day out. So that's just me thinking I'm a smart guy who could improve things. The construction industry is a lot different, with all the cities and counties and the regulations and the permitting. It's a different beast than managing a technology project. And it's probably best to look to the experts who've been doing it for a while.
Kumar: Although for me it would be a curiosity factor. How does it work, and how do these people do their work in a way that still complies with the regulatory side of things, but they still make money at the end of the day? So I want to go back to your pivot and also your search. Your capital's tied up, you've got some rental properties, but you're not able to advance, not able to do some of the things you want to do on the real estate side. What about on the transformation side? Are you looking for work? And if so, how's that going?
Jeff: When the layoff first hit, it was in September. I knew at that point, all right, I'm going to take this opportunity. The end of the year isn't the best for looking for a job, so I'm going to hang out through the end of the year and pick things up at the beginning of the year. During that time, I was starting to build that development pipeline. Then into the next year, I took some time to volunteer with Habitat for Humanity and became a core volunteer. So I was out swinging hammers and helping them do their thing, regularly, which I enjoy. But then, as I got my pipeline established, and since my intent was never to leave technology per se, I didn't quit the company, they quit me, I did start looking for some work, kind of lightweight. This last year I started getting in a little more heavily. It's like, all right, it's time to go back. These investments are done, my hands are tied, and I'm not a guy who can just sit around and do absolutely nothing. And yeah, the transformation and technology market has certainly changed a bit. So I've been looking and working on that, and it's difficult. I had a difficult time. Let's put it that way.
Kumar: What are you seeing as the primary drivers now, or the changes from say ten years ago, or even eight years ago before the pandemic, in how you go about looking for a job and finding a job? Networking is still critical, but AI has played a big part from what I can tell.
Jeff: I think it's hard to get through to a human being. These AI, ATS systems really pull you out real quickly, and I haven't mastered what they're looking for, quite honestly. I've tried changing resumes, changing cover letters. I certainly use AI to do a lot of that. I've learned a lot about how to use AI in that approach, making sure my voice and my experience are integrated into the resumes and cover letters. But it just hasn't been overly successful. I've networked into companies, and I know people who've helped me out, and I've been through interview processes, but I'm not the only one looking. I was in a situation of interviews and got recommended for a role, and two of the interviewers knew one of the other candidates who'd worked with them in the past. It's kind of hard to compete with that. So those are the types of situations I keep finding myself in, unfortunately.
Kumar: That has a familiar ring to it for many people looking for work right now. Any advice you'd give people who are out there looking and having to navigate the AI-fueled recruitment process?
Jeff: I don't know that I have advice on the AI aspect of it, to be honest. I've mainly found jobs networking, and I think the networking is still huge. Reaching out to the people you know, letting them know what you're looking for and that you're looking, that's going to go a huge way. There's always the advice of, all right, pick ten companies, research them, and dig into them. And honestly, I haven't really done that. I don't know if it would make a difference in this market. Mainly, I send out the cold-call resumes just to see if something hits. But otherwise, I still try to reach out to my network contacts.
Kumar: I'm with you. The networking thing is where I've found my work the last twenty years. It's the people I know and the people they know. I've tried to crack the ATS code as well, like you have, and it's a hard nut to crack, because I'm not sure what it's looking for. There are probably thousands of resumes that come in for one or two or three jobs, so I don't know what that selection process looks like. And like you, I've tried to use AI to enhance that process, and it hasn't been successful. When I was looking, it didn't work.
Jeff: I can't imagine, as a hiring manager in the past, getting three thousand resumes for a role. What do you do with that? So I get the other side of it, but I don't know that where we're at is necessarily working. I'm not an expert in everything, and I'm not perfect, but I've got a lot of solid experience, and it's hard to think, well, I can read a job description that's written for me and my background, and yet, nothing.
Kumar: It's a weird thing for sure.
Jeff: Exactly.
Kumar: So I'd like to close with where you're headed. Not necessarily a polished answer, just, what are your thoughts? Where are you headed from here on out?
Jeff: Great question. I ask myself that a lot. I've always enjoyed the technology. I've enjoyed solving problems for people and helping people. That's been my career. So I would love to get back into some roles there. But I'm not limiting myself to that. If something popped up in real estate that was a tangent to the skills I have, in program management for instance, I'd go do that. I've thought about starting something, but I don't know that I've had a passion just grabbing me and saying, here's what you should go run and do. So I remain open in my brain. I continuously try to learn more about AI and where that's going. I attend real estate networking events. I keep up to date with technology. And I just leave myself open to an opportunity presenting itself. So that's kind of where I'm at. I feel sometimes like I'm wandering afield as opposed to having a direction, and that is frustrating at times. But I just keep working on both fronts and see what comes up.
Kumar: I think that's a good enough approach. Although there's this notion that having focus in one area and putting all your efforts behind it often yields a better result. But there's also the school of thought that having options is a good thing, because you don't know what's going to hit.
Jeff: Right. Absolutely.
Kumar: So it's maybe finding that balance between the two approaches. And with AI, maybe you can do both and feel like you're focused on both of them.
Jeff: Certainly.
Kumar: That could help you in that cause. Well, I don't have any other questions. Anything else you'd like to share with this audience before we sign off?
Jeff: I don't think so. I've appreciated the opportunity, and I hope it was helpful for anybody listening. Feel free to reach out if you've got any questions on real estate, or certainly if you've got anything you think I might be good at helping you with, let me know.
Kumar: All right, sounds good. Well, thank you so much for joining, and thanks to those of you who joined and attended. We'll see you in a couple of weeks. Bye-bye.
